YoY Growth To Persist Across Segments: Auto Sales Preview Dec 22

Emkay Global Financial Services conducted a channel check to gauge the volumes’ estimate for the month of December. The channel checks indicate a higher YoY volumes for PVs, though volumes would be lower MoM due to production constraints. Further, Tractor volumes are likely to be better on a YoY basis but decline MoM due to seasonality. In addition, 2-Wheeler volume growth should be positive YoY, supported by marriage season demand and favorable base effect. Lastly, CVs are likely to maintain their double-digit growth momentum. 

Emkay Global preferred picks in the OEM space include Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motor, Escorts Ashok Leyland, and TVS Motor.

Passenger Vehicles

PV industry’s volumes should witness robust growth (over 15 per cent YoY) on account of large order book. Volumes are likely to decline sequentially on production constraints. Supply constraints are persisting due to electronic component shortages, which may continue in the subsequent months. Among OEMs, Emkay estimates domestic volumes to grow by 64 per cent YoY for M&M and 25 per cent for Tata Motors while declining slightly by 4 per cent for Maruti Suzuki due to six-day maintenance shutdown. Blended vehicle discounts have increased on MoM basis due to seasonality but remain lower than the peak levels seen in the past.

Commercial Vehicles

CV industry’s volumes should grow in double digits (over 10 per cent YoY) with robust demand in both passenger and cargo segments. In the cargo segment, demand is chiefly being driven by large fleet operators, and demand from small/medium operators is seeing a gradual recovery. Emkay expects positive growth at 27 per cent YoY for Ashok Leyland, 22 per cent for M&M, 12 per cent for Eicher Motor-VolveEicherCV, and 1 per cent for Tata Motors in the domestic market. Ashok Leyland remains an outperformer due to favorable mix and enhanced marketing efforts.

Two-Wheelers

2-Wheeler industry volumes are expected to improve (over 15 per cent YoY) on a low base. The channel checks indicate that marriage season demand aided 2-wheeler volumes in the initial part of the month till the commencement of the inauspicious period. Emkay Global expect domestic volumes to improve by 25 per cent for TVS Motor, 9 per cent for Hero Moto Corp, and 2 per cent for Bajaj Auto, whereas they should slightly decline by 3 per cent for Eicher-Royal Enfield.

Tractors

Tractor industry’s volumes are likely to register positive growth. The company expectsa single-digit growth in domestic volumes, at 8 per cent YoY for M&M and 5 per cent for Escorts.