The Bicycle Thieves
When Vittorio De Sica’s cinematic masterpiece “The Bicycle Thieves” was released in 1948, the Italians did not take too kindly to it as they thought the film showed them in poor light, especially after the war. Over time they realised that the narrative was not about thievery but about aspirations and deprivation. It was the painful story of Antonio out to recover his stolen bicycle with his son Bruno as that was his only means to livelihood.
The film drives home another key point that reconstruction and revival is not only about large-scale industrialisation and infrastructure but also fundamental truths like equitable empowerment. The bicycle is a symbol of the same. In country after country, it has been the carrier of economic independence and progress. The developed economic power of today has reached its current position starting with the bicycle decades ago. Nations that have ignored the same have stumbled on their paths of progress.
Basic health, primary education, cheap housing, and the bicycle are the fundamental elements of inclusive and sustainable growth. While the first three provide stability, the bicycle provides basic mobility.
Italy has moved on since then. So has most of Europe. The bicycle has become more of a recreation in the ‘developed’ countries. And the thieves have shifted base to India!
Like many things central to the development of a young nation like ours, the bicycle too has been gradually and deliberately neglected to the benefit of a few and the deprivation of millions.
A plateaued market
In 2020-21 we sold 15 million motorcycles & scooters but only 12 million bicycles. Mind you, the most expensive commuter bicycle costs 5% of an entry level commuter motorcycle.
Since the turn of the century, the overall bicycle market has remained flat.
The above data chart shows the doubling of the market in India in 15 years’ time till 2000. Since then, the market has remained flat for 20 years.
For the 2020-21 numbers, the industry association AICMA states, and I quote, “The year witnessed very high demand in retail sales (due to immunity /fitness need, social distancing, sourcing and delivering essential items and the fact lower pollution and low traffic on roads). This apart, it registered very low demand in institutional sales. The high demand however could not be fulfilled due to lock down, labour issue, raw material availability, social distancing and associated issues.”
Of the 12 million sold, 4 million were ‘fancy’ and 2 million were ‘kids’ categories. The commuter category, called ‘roadster’, that forms the backbone of personal mobility was a mere 5 million. In fact, the pandemic hit this segment the most as its buyers were worst affected in the first wave in Q1 and Q2 of 2020-21.
The bottom of the pyramid
The humble commuter bicycle attracts a GST of 12%. Interestingly the electric bicycle, costing roughly ten times more than a non-motorised commuter one falls in the 5% slab! Such twisted logic is fundamental to how the government treats the bicycle as a ‘luxury’ product, similar to clothes and footwear.
Last year, Pankaj Munjal of Hero Cycles had said, “GST should come down to 5%. If the rate is reduced and volumes go up, SMEs (small and medium enterprises) will fly. This (lower GST) should come for 500 million common people. That is what is required at this stage. SMEs are backbone of this country.” His simple logic was that the GST rate cut itself would be the best stimulus for the category to grow and no additional incentives are required. This logic has obviously eluded the GST council till now.
Global bicycle population in 2000
The bicycle has been a key ingredient of economic growth of almost all developed nations at various points of time in their respective histories, right from the 1920s in the US to the 1980s in China. Vietnam is the latest example. A careful study of the lesser developed nations right now will show that the bicycle has never been actively encouraged as a fundamental mode of basic mobility and manufacturers have not been encouraged to produce more and cheaper.
Bread versus Cake
India started off in right earnest with the bicycle from 1947 but lost the plot from the 1980s when we wanted to out-do China and move into a higher gear of growth. in 1986 Taiwan sold double the number of India’s while China was eight times ahead.
Our planners thought that we could leap directly from the foot to the motorcycle without having millions move on the humble bicycle. The birth of the Indo-Japanese automakers in the early 1980s made us daydream of an India on motorised two-wheeled transport, cocking a snook at the poor Chinese who were still moving by the millions on bicycles.
Our planners believed that personal transport in India would go the personal telephony way, directly from the fixed landline to the mobile phone without bothering about pagers. If the common man on foot could not move on a bicycle, let him move on a motorcycle! A bit like Marie Antoinette’s bread and cake logic.
The grandiose visions of a motorised India led to a deliberate neglect of the bicycle industry, coupled by strong lobbying by the new automakers entering this market promising to make mobility affordable. It also worked very well in keeping the larger electorate poor and susceptible to dreams being cast before them at election time!
Inequitable growth
The new millennium has seen a lopsided transport map of India.
We have roughly 200 million people walking up to 10 kms to work every day.
We have around 110 million bicyclists.
But we have roughly 40+ million four-wheelers and 230+ million two-wheelers on the road.
While motorised transport has grown by 8-10% over the last 20 years, bicycles have grown by only 3%. If the latter were to grow at the same rate as their richer cousins, we would have close to 300 million more bicyclists!
Market estimation firms predict that the bicycle market in India will now grow at around 6-8% till 2025 which seems encouraging. But the fine print tells you that the bulk of this growth will be led by the recreational and fancy segments given the sudden fascination for fitness in metro-centric India.
Source : ACMA
Our Vice President too got caught in this growth story when he made the statement above on 28th November in an international webinar on promoting cycling! One has to promote cycling only to those who are used to sedentary lifestyles and need to become fit. Cycling becomes a fashionable route to fitness. The ‘saving the environment’ story is an add-on. One does not need to promote fitness to the 200 million who walk. They are anyway some of the fittest on this land!
Empowering those on foot
The data chart below from a TERI report shows that the lack of a robust public transport system in India necessitates the focus on the bicycle as a feasible mode of personal transport.
Share of work trips by mode in India, 2016, Source : TERI Analysis
Foot is a limiting mode of mobility and restrains the commoner from exploring work and business opportunities beyond 10 odd kms. An August 2020 report states that 25%of the working population in Mumbai walks for livelihood. While this might work in cities where distances are shorter than rural and alternate means of transport like three-wheelers etc are available [termed IPT in the TERI analysis], it does not work at all in semi-urban and rural areas. The distances are much more, and alternate means are irregular and unreliable. Hence the bicycle is both a saviour and stimulant in exploring more and better employment opportunities.
Till India does not build a robust water and IPT transport grid, the bicycle will be the cheapest mode. And even after these grids come up, the bicycle will still be the most flexible mode of mechanised mobility.
While the bicycle is a mode of transport by choice in the more developed economies, it is a matter of compulsion in an economy like India.
Equitable and Clean
I am not going into the health benefits of cycling as that applies to the affluent class of people. I shall focus on the positive impact the bicycle has on the economy by being an equitable and clean mode of transport. I shall use another chart from the same TERI analysis to substantiate my claim.
Estimated direct benefits of increased cycling / TERI Analysis
The benefits through savings on fuel, health costs, air pollution and travel time impact close to 2% of our GDP. The indirect benefits accrue around 1 million tonnes of reduced CO2 emissions and 0.35 million tonnes of energy savings.The study does not calculate the increased employability, remunerations, and commerce due to more people cycling across the country. It does not also calculate the increase in speed of services to semi-urban and rural India thereby improving quality of life. Development would finally be inclusive and equitable, a goal we had set for ourselves 75 years ago.
A McKinsey study on Gender Parity says that we could add a whopping USD 770 billion to our GDP by 2025 simply by encouraging girls to study and participate in the workforce. And the bicycle would be a pivot in empowering them to both go to school and go to their workplaces.
My estimate is that the total positive impact would be close to 8-10% of our GDP in a combination of savings and increased revenues.
Undoing the damage
On the 75th year of our independence as we reiterate our commitment to the cause of building the Indian of our dreams and add the target of being a USD 5 trillion economy by 2030, there are 5 specific actions that should be undertaken by central and state governments together using the bicycle as a pivot of progress.
The pot of gold for a USD 5 trillion economy lies at the bottom of the pyramid. There lives a man from a village astride his bicycle. And both look forward to their places in the sun!
Jai Hind!!
 Xitij Kothi, Co-founder, Vidyut and Gaurav Gupta, CGO, JSW MG Motor India_20240930152515_original_image_30.webp)
