Electric Vehicle Sales In The US, China And Europe To Outstrip All Other Engine Sales By 2033 – EY Analysis

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China, and Europe will outstrip all other engines five years sooner than previously expected, according to new EY research and analysis. 

The latest predictions show that by 2028 EV sales in Europe will surpass those of other powertrains, a trend that will be repeated in China by 2033 and in the US by 2036. The analysis also shows that by 2045, non-EV sales will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales. In terms of EV sales volumes, Europe is expected to lead the way until 2031, with China taking the lead from 2032 to 2050.

Randall Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader, says:“A mix of changing consumer attitudes, ambitious climate-focused regulations and technology evolution is about to change the landscape of vehicle buying forever. While the automotive industry has begun to more fully embrace the move toward electrification, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected. This new outlook also has implications for governments and energy industries in terms of infrastructure and electricity generation and storage, and forward-looking organizations are already using this data to help ensure a smooth transition to this new EV-dominated market, which will be here much sooner than expected.”

As the global auto industry continues to recover from the issues it’s facing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it will be met by a new group of car buyers. Many people who had rejected ownership in lieu of ridesharing and public transport have reassessed in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to EY analysis.

The EY Mobility Consumer Index published in November showed that almost one-third of non-car owners planned to buy a car in the next six months (19% plan to buy new, 12% used cars), and about half of those are millennials. Among both current car owners and non-car owners, 30% said they’d prefer a non-ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle for their next purchase.

In terms of regulatory support, the new US administration’s announcements include continuity of EV buying incentives and the development of charging infrastructure. In Europe, incentives to purchase EVs are part of COVID-19-related relief measures in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Austria. The UK has announced that it will ban the sale of ICE vehicles starting from 2030. China also continues to support EVs through regulatory measures, wide product range and increasing customer demand. From the supply perspective, automakers globally have also begun to set their own twilight dates for gasoline-and diesel-powered vehicles, in favor of EVs.