India’s Vehicle Count To Hit 500 Million By 2050; Up From 226 Million In 2023

India’s vehicle ownership is set to more than double over the next 25 years, from 226 million in 2023 to nearly 500 million by 2050, according to a new district-level study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). The research also confirms that electric vehicles (EVs), particularly two and three-wheelers, are already cheaper to own and operate than their petrol counterparts.

Two-wheelers to Dominate; Northern States Lead Growth

Two-wheelers will remain the dominant mode of transport, making up 70 per cent of the total vehicle stock by 2050, roughly 350 million units. Car ownership is also set to grow sharply, nearly tripling to 90 million.

The study reveals that most of this growth will be concentrated in northern and western states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. Uttar Pradesh alone could see over 90 million vehicles on its roads. In contrast, southern states are expected to see slower growth due to population stabilisation.

Urban centres like Delhi, Bengaluru, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad will continue to lead at the district level, accounting for around 10 per cent of the total projected vehicle stock by mid-century.

Electric Vehicles Already Cost-effective in Key Segments

CEEW’s research highlights that electric two and three-wheelers are already more affordable to own and operate than petrol versions. For example, the total cost of owning an electric two-wheeler stands at Rs 1.48/km, compared to Rs 2.46/km for a petrol one. Similarly, electric three-wheelers cost Rs 1.28/km, while their petrol counterparts cost over Rs 3/km.

The economics are also turning in favour of electric taxis in states that offer subsidies and have lower charging tariffs. However, in the case of private cars, competitiveness depends on location due to varied policy support and charging infrastructure.

Heavy-duty Vehicles Still Behind in EV Adoption

For medium and heavy goods vehicles, EVs are not yet cost-competitive. Diesel, CNG, and LNG continue to be cheaper alternatives. LNG is expected to remain the most affordable fuel for trucks and buses until at least 2040. Widespread EV adoption in this segment will require breakthroughs in battery technology, better infrastructure, and reduced upfront costs.

Without aggressive policies and infrastructure investment, diesel will continue to dominate heavy vehicle energy demand well into the 2040s. CEEW warns that in a business-as-usual scenario, diesel consumption will only peak by 2047, and petrol by 2032.

“The transport transition directly affects energy suppliers and vehicle manufacturers,” said Hemant Mallya, Fellow at CEEW. “A district-level view on cost and fuel demand helps industry and policymakers better prepare for cleaner, more efficient mobility systems.”

Mallya added that in addition to EVs, natural gas could serve as a transition fuel for heavy-duty transport, provided existing gas infrastructure is used strategically.

Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Shift

To support the clean mobility transition, the study recommends:

• Improving vehicle stock data at the district level, especially via the VAHAN portal.
• Enhancing EV affordability through battery financing models like EMIs or rentals.
• Mapping parking availability to target households likely to adopt EVs.
• Expanding slow-charging facilities in residential and public parking areas.
• Conducting comparative trials across vehicle segments and fuel types to generate reliable real-world data.
• Preparing for a drop in fuel tax revenues by exploring distance-based taxation models.

Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW, stressed the need for more efficient urban mobility systems to address India’s growing challenges around congestion, emissions, and energy security.

“Our modelling shows that if we stay on the current path, we risk unsustainable levels of fuel use and emissions,” she said. “Cities must be reimagined with walkable, low-emission transport systems that also support economic growth.”

CEEW’s new Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM), India’s first tool for district-level vehicle and energy projections, aims to guide OEMs, policymakers, and investors in aligning strategy with a low-carbon mobility future.